Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.407800 3.695948 4.025388 4.437360 4.950465 5.586555 6.468353
2025-02-09 3.027571 3.389081 3.834081 4.445321 5.308610 6.579085 8.862647
2025-02-16 2.803395 3.203970 3.722482 4.485684 5.680699 7.753789 12.920893
2025-02-23 2.578650 2.978826 3.510743 4.324328 5.679470 8.308798 17.131299
2025-03-02 2.457037 2.870932 3.437137 4.341490 5.963786 9.625697 32.267470
2025-03-09 2.350571 2.770562 3.358058 4.329662 6.186868 11.050232 186.143381
2025-03-16 2.239962 2.654190 3.241609 4.234646 6.214255 12.004738 NaN
2025-03-23 2.190987 2.619251 3.240818 4.332538 6.683646 15.415717 NaN
2025-03-30 2.093823 2.508655 3.114264 4.188525 6.550862 16.007191 NaN
2025-04-06 2.003050 2.402529 2.987420 4.030061 6.347228 16.001585 NaN
2025-04-13 1.933846 2.324352 2.899270 3.933858 6.280811 16.898998 NaN
2025-04-20 1.911126 2.312386 2.913753 4.030052 6.746796 24.104615 NaN
2025-04-27 1.902439 2.322227 2.966557 4.215213 7.592612 64.126885 NaN
2025-05-04 1.863309 2.284323 2.938244 4.233741 7.948372 2356.345391 NaN
2025-05-11 1.830624 2.254367 2.920757 4.272477 8.413245 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.770686 2.180076 2.823501 4.127116 8.107083 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.740410 2.150213 2.800506 4.142747 8.471912 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.708185 2.115892 2.767583 4.132056 8.731700 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.666752 2.065721 2.704443 4.045910 8.612640 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.653506 2.058902 2.716519 4.134665 9.405197 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.610022 2.003056 2.639087 4.004021 8.992682 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.566228 1.945786 2.557536 3.859723 8.490637 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.532218 1.903211 2.500869 3.771842 8.277384 NaN NaN